沙之天地

The world’s biggest economic problem

世界最大的經濟問題

Deflation in the euro zone is all too close and extremely dangerous

Oct 25th 2014 | From the print edition

歐元區的通貨緊縮過於接近且極度危險

2014年十月二十五日

THE world economy is not in good shape. The news from America and Britain has been reasonably positive, but Japan’s economy is struggling and China’s growth is now slower than at any time since 2009. Unpredictable dangers abound, particularly from the Ebola epidemic, which has killed thousands in West Africa and jangled nerves far beyond. But the biggest economic threat, by far, comes from continental Europe.

目前世界經濟的狀態並不好。美國和英國符合常理地積極；然而日本經濟陷入危機；對照自2009年起迄的任何時刻，如今的中國成長力相對緩慢。不可預測的危險充斥，尤其自伊波拉流行開始，西非數千人因此病而死，繃緊遠方大陸人們的神經。然而到目前為止，最大的經濟威脅來自歐洲大陸。

Now that German growth has stumbled, the euro area is on the verge of tipping into its third recession in six years. Its leaders have squandered two years of respite, granted by the pledge of Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank’s president, to do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency. The French and the Italians have dodged structural reforms, while the Germans have insisted on too much austerity. Prices are falling in eight European countries. The zone’s overall inflation rate has slipped to 0.3% and may well go into outright decline next year. A region that makes up almost a fifth of world output is marching towards stagnation and deflation.

如今德國成長力停滯不前，此歐元區面臨在六年內陷入她歷史上的第三次經濟衰退。她的領導者已經揮霍了兩年的喘息時間，源於歐洲央行總裁德拉吉的一句誓言：「不計任何代價。」以拯救此單一貨幣。法國和義大利迴避結構改革，德國堅持太多繜節措施。歐元價格在八個歐洲國家正在下跌。歐元區的整體通貨膨脹率已經下滑到千分之三，且可能在明年陷入完全衰退。一個幾乎組成世界百分之五十產值的地區，如今正向經濟停滯和通貨緊縮前進。

Optimists, both inside and outside Europe, often cite the example of Japan. It fell into deflation in the late-1990s, with unpleasant but not apocalyptic consequences for both itself and the world economy. But the euro zone poses far greater risks. Unlike Japan, the euro zone is not an isolated case: from China to America inflation is worryingly low, and slipping. And, unlike Japan, which has a homogenous, stoic society, the euro area cannot hang together through years of economic sclerosis and falling prices. As debt burdens soar from Italy to Greece, investors will take fright, populist politicians will gain ground, and—sooner rather than later—the euro will collapse.

歐洲內外的樂觀者，經常引用日本的案例。這個國家在九○年代末期陷入通貨緊縮，帶給她本身及世界經濟不樂觀但非無可挽救的後果。但是歐元區的危機遠大於此。不像日本，歐元區並不是單一個案：從中國到美國，通貨膨脹令人擔憂地低，且持續下滑。和日本不同，日本擁有同質性、禁慾主義的社會，在經濟凝滯和歐元下跌的情況下，歐元區無法團結一致。由於從義大利到希臘的歐債攀升，投資者將開始害怕、民粹主義的政客將會增加，以及──歐元將遲早會崩塌。

This parrot has ceased to be

這隻鸚鵡已經死亡

Although many Europeans, especially the Germans, have been brought up to fear inflation, deflation can be still more savage (see article). If people and firms expect prices to fall, they stop spending, and as demand sinks, loan defaults rise. That was what happened in the Great Depression, with especially dire consequences in Germany in the early 1930s.

雖然許多歐洲人、尤其是德國人，從小就被教導要害怕通膨，但是通縮可能更加來得兇猛〈見文章〉。如果人民和公司預期歐元下跌，所以他們停止消費，那麼因為需求下跌，貸款違約就會上升。這就是發生在經濟大蕭條時的事情，尤其在德國三○年代早期帶來悲慘的後果。

So it is worrying that, of the 46 countries whose central banks target inflation, 30 are below their target. Some price falls are welcome. Tumbling oil prices, in particular, have given consumers’ incomes a boost (see article). But slowing prices and stagnant wages owe more to weak demand in the economy and roughly 45m workers are jobless in the rich OECD countries. Investors are starting to expect lower inflation even in economies, such as America’s, that are growing at reasonable rates. Worse, short-term interest rates are close to zero in many economies, so central banks cannot cut them to boost spending. The only ammunition comes from quantitative easing and other forms of printing money.

所以讓人擔心的是，四十六個國家的央行瞄準通膨，30則低於他們的目標。有些價格的下跌卻令人欣喜。石油價格的下跌，特別能夠提升消費者的收入〈見文章〉，但減緩的石油價格和停滯的工資減弱經濟需求，讓大約四千五百萬名工人在富裕的OECD〈經濟合作發展組織〉國家裡失業。投資者開始預期更低的通貨膨脹甚至在一些經濟體發生，如現在以合理利率成長的美國。更糟糕的是，短期的利率在許多經濟體中接近於零，所以央行不能減少利率來提升消費。惟一的武器就是量化寬鬆及其他形式的印鈔。

The global lowflation threat is a good reason for most central banks to keep monetary policy loose. It is also, in the longer term, a prompt to look at revising inflation targets a shade upwards. But the immediate problem is the euro area.

全球低通膨威脅對於大部份央行來說是一個維持貨幣寬鬆政策的好理由。同樣是，在長期來說，著眼於向內瞄準巢窠的修訂通貨膨脹的提示。但是迫切的問題是歐元區。

Continental Europe’s economy has plenty of big underlying weaknesses, from poor demography to heavy debt and sclerotic labour markets. But it has also made enormous policy mistakes. France, Italy and Germany have all eschewed growth-enhancing structural reforms. The euro zone is particularly vulnerable to deflation because of Germany’s insistence on too much fiscal austerity and the ECB’s timidity. Even now, with economies contracting, Germany is still obsessed with deficit reduction for all governments, while its opposition to monetary easing has meant that the ECB, to the obvious despair of Mr Draghi, has done far less than other big central banks in terms of quantitative easing (notwithstanding this week’s move to start buying “covered bonds”).

歐洲大陸的經濟擁有大量潛在弱點，從少得可憐的人口到龐大的負債，以及僵硬的勞工市場。但它也犯下龐大的政治錯誤。法國、義大利和德國全避開提升成長力的結構性改革。歐元區對於通貨緊縮特別脆弱，因為德國堅持太多財政繜節，以及歐洲央行的膽怯。即使現在，委託管理許多經濟體的德國依然著迷於要求所有政府減少赤字，雖然此周歐洲央行開始購買「金融資產擔保債卷」，然而德國對貨幣寬鬆的反對，代表對德拉吉總裁明顯失望的歐洲央行不會做出遠大於其他央行的量化寬鬆政策。

If there was ever logic to this incrementalism, it has run out. As budgets shrink and the ECB struggles to convince people that it can stop prices slipping, a descent into deflation seems all too probable. Signs of stress are beginning to appear in both the markets and politics. Bond yields in Greece have risen sharply, as support for the left-wing Syriza party has surged (see article). France and Germany are trading rhetorical blows over a new budget proposal coming out of Paris.

如果此漸進主義曾經有任何邏輯根源，如今此邏輯已站不住腳。因為預算縮減和歐洲央行苦於說服人民它可以阻止歐元下滑，落入通貨緊縮讓一切看來大有希望。壓力的跡象開始顯現在市場和政策。希臘債卷價格攀升快速，如同對希臘「激進左翼聯盟」的支持激增一樣。〈見文章〉法國和德國為了來自巴黎的新預算提案爭吵不休。

Joining the bleedin’ choir invisible

共謀看不見的流血犯罪

If Europe is to stop its economy getting worse, it will have to stop its self-destructive behaviour. The ECB needs to start buying sovereign bonds. Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, should allow France and Italy to slow the pace of their fiscal cuts; in return, those countries should accelerate structural reforms. Germany, which can borrow money at negative real interest rates, could spend more building infrastructure at home.

如果歐洲計劃停止讓她的經濟體變得更糟，她就必須停止其自毀行為。歐洲央行需要開始購買主權債卷。德國總理梅克爾應該允許法國和義大利減緩她們的財務繜節；作為回報，這些國家應加速其結構改革。能夠以負的真實利率借款的德國，可以將這些錢花在更多基礎建設上。

That would help, but not be enough. It is a bit like the early years of the euro debacle, before Mr Draghi’s whatever-it-takes pledge, when half-solutions only fed the crisis. Something radical is needed. The hitch is that European law bans many textbook solutions, such as ECB purchases of newly issued government bonds. The best legal option is to couple a dramatic increase in infrastructure spending with bond-buying by the ECB. Thus the European Investment Bank could launch a big (say €300 billion, or $383 billion) expansion in investments such as faster cross-border rail links or more integrated electricity grids—and raise the money by issuing bonds, which the ECB could buy in the secondary market. Another possibility would be to redefine the EU’s deficit rules to exclude investment spending, which would allow governments to run bigger deficits, again with the ECB providing a backstop.

這些可以帶來幫助，然而還不夠。這有點像是早期的歐元崩潰，在德拉吉總裁的保證「不計任何代價」前，當時有一半的解決方法只不過助長了危機。歐洲需要一些激進手段。阻礙在於，歐洲的法律禁止許多教科書上的解決方法，像是讓歐洲央行購買新發行的政府債。最好的法律選項是結合劇烈增加的基礎建設開銷以及歐洲央行的債卷購買。因此歐洲投資銀行可以發行巨額投資擴張〈據稱3000億歐元，或是3830億美金〉投資在一些像是高速跨界鐵路或是整合電網上，以及利用發行債卷募資，價值約等於歐洲央行過去能在次級市場買到的檔次。其他可能性會是重新定義歐元赤字的規則來排除投資花費，這會允許這些政府創造更大的赤字，歐洲央行則再一次為其在背後撐腰。

Behind all this sits a problem of political will (see article). Mrs Merkel and the Germans seem prepared to take action only when the single currency is on the verge of catastrophe. Throughout Europe people are hurting—in Italy and Spain youth unemployment is above 40%. Voters vented their fury with the established order in the EU’s parliamentary elections earlier this summer, and got very little change. Another descent into the abyss will test their patience. And once deflation has an economy in its jaws, it is very hard to shake off. Europe’s leaders are running out of time.

在一切背後存在一個政治意向的問題〈見文章〉。梅克爾女士和德國人看似準備在只有單一貨幣即將面臨大災難時才採取行動。所有歐洲人民正在受苦，在義大利及西班牙，年輕人的失業率超過百分之四十。選民將他們的憤怒宣洩在今年夏天的歐元議會選舉，可惜重組之後的議會依然成效不彰。另一個深淵同樣考驗選民的耐心。一旦通縮咬住了一個經濟體，鬆開它的口將十分困難。歐洲的領導者們將耗盡所有時間。