The world’s biggest economic problem
世界最大的經濟問題
Deflation in the euro zone is all too close and extremely dangerous
Oct 25th 2014 | From the print edition
歐元區的通貨緊縮過於接近且極度危險
2014年十月二十五日
THE world economy is not in good shape. The news from America and Britain has been reasonably positive, but Japan’s economy is struggling and China’s growth is now slower than at any time since 2009. Unpredictable dangers abound, particularly from the Ebola epidemic, which has killed thousands in West Africa and jangled nerves far beyond. But the biggest economic threat, by far, comes from continental Europe.
目前世界經濟的狀態並不好。美國和英國符合常理地積極；然而日本經濟陷入危機；對照自2009年起迄的任何時刻，如今的中國成長力相對緩慢。不可預測的危險充斥，尤其自伊波拉流行開始，西非數千人因此病而死，繃緊遠方大陸人們的神經。然而到目前為止，最大的經濟威脅來自歐洲大陸。
Now that German growth has stumbled, the euro area is on the verge of tipping into its third recession in six years. Its leaders have squandered two years of respite, granted by the pledge of Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank’s president, to do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency. The French and the Italians have dodged structural reforms, while the Germans have insisted on too much austerity. Prices are falling in eight European countries. The zone’s overall inflation rate has slipped to 0.3% and may well go into outright decline next year. A region that makes up almost a fifth of world output is marching towards stagnation and deflation.
如今德國成長力停滯不前，此歐元區面臨在六年內陷入她歷史上的第三次經濟衰退。她的領導者已經揮霍了兩年的喘息時間，源於歐洲央行總裁德拉吉的一句誓言：「不計任何代價。」以拯救此單一貨幣。法國和義大利迴避結構改革，德國堅持太多繜節措施。歐元價格在八個歐洲國家正在下跌。歐元區的整體通貨膨脹率已經下滑到千分之三，且可能在明年陷入完全衰退。一個幾乎組成世界百分之五十產值的地區，如今正向經濟停滯和通貨緊縮前進。
Optimists, both inside and outside Europe, often cite the example of Japan. It fell into deflation in the late-1990s, with unpleasant but not apocalyptic consequences for both itself and the world economy. But the euro zone poses far greater risks. Unlike Japan, the euro zone is not an isolated case: from China to America inflation is worryingly low, and slipping. And, unlike Japan, which has a homogenous, stoic society, the euro area cannot hang together through years of economic sclerosis and falling prices. As debt burdens soar from Italy to Greece, investors will take fright, populist politicians will gain ground, and—sooner rather than later—the euro will collapse.
歐洲內外的樂觀者，經常引用日本的案例。這個國家在九○年代末期陷入通貨緊縮，帶給她本身及世界經濟不樂觀但非無可挽救的後果。但是歐元區的危機遠大於此。不像日本，歐元區並不是單一個案：從中國到美國，通貨膨脹令人擔憂地低，且持續下滑。和日本不同，日本擁有同質性、禁慾主義的社會，在經濟凝滯和歐元下跌的情況下，歐元區無法團結一致。由於從義大利到希臘的歐債攀升，投資者將開始害怕、民粹主義的政客將會增加，以及──歐元將遲早會崩塌。
This parrot has ceased to be
這隻鸚鵡已經死亡
在台南水岸說故事 (5)
